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Space Transportation Systems Affordability, Responsiveness, Reliability and Safety

Understanding the Pieces

"Barriers to Opening the Space Frontier...and Solutions"

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Affordability, Cost Estimating

May 26, 2009

  • "The Joint Confidence Level Paradox, A History of Denial", by Glenn Butts, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Kent Litton, SAIC/Craig Technologies (download, 3MB .pdf)

    "The authors provide Historical Evaluation of Cost and Schedule Estimating Performance During NASA's Tenure as an Agency - Following which they introduce an optimum Hybrid model for more accurately calculating Cost and Schedule estimates in NASA's Complex systems engineering environment."

Affordability, Collaboration

2008

  • The Global Exploration Strategy, A framework for Coordination: Download report > here or here

"Sustainable space exploration is a challenge that no one nation can do on its own. This is why fourteen space agencies have developed The Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination, which presents a vision for robotic and human space exploration, focussing on destinations within the solar system where we may one day live and work. It elaborates an action plan to share the strategies and efforts of individual nations so that all can achieve their exploration goals more effectively and safely."

In alphabetical order: ASI (Italy), BNSC (United Kingdom), CNES (France), CNSA (China), CSA (Canada), CSIRO (Australia), DLR (Germany), ESA (European Space Agency), ISRO (India), JAXA (Japan), KARI (Republic of Korea), NASA (United States of America), NSAU (Ukraine), Roscosmos (Russia). "Space Agencies" refers to government organizations responsible for space activities.

Affordability, DATA

Facts on the Ground, NASA Workforce, Demographics

As any improvement in the safety, reliability or affordability of access to space and beyond is a generational endeavour...

Affordability, DATA

2005

Reliability, Failure Rates, DATA

The following data relates especially well to Space Transportation Systems Affordability, Responsiveness, Reliability and Safety. The quality of hardware and software systems, as manifest in launch vehicle failure rates, beckons for improvement. The visible failure rates, during flight, and the less visible failures during ground processing, causing unplanned work, are inter-connected quality and technology issues for the aero-industry.

2004

Design for Operations - "D4Ops"

It is envisioned that dramatically safer, lower cost, and higher flight rate access to space is possible by applying the wealth of experience gained from human space flight launch operations. Shuttle launch operations, particularly the world’s only reusable space plane elements, the orbiters, have accumulated a vast set of ideas, lessons learned, insight and “design for ops” experience. Current work such as the Shuttle Root Cause Analysis will add further insight to quantifiably understand why previous reusable launch systems are as costly as they are and why they take as long as they do to prepare for launch.

"Designers of space launch systems should be cognizant of the impact of their design assumptions on operational characteristics. Operational metrics such as turnaround time, recurring cost, and headcount are critical factors for the future viability of such systems. The results presented here are from a study that seeks to determine in what manner design approaches can improve the operability of future space launch systems. This is accomplished by applying such operational approaches at the start of the concept design process. These design for operations (D4Ops) choices or approaches are determined from data-mining NASA Space Shuttle orbiter processing information. These approaches are then applied to three different launch vehicle contexts created for this study and based on existing NASA reference designs. These contexts include near (2010), mid (2015), and far (2025+) term examples. Specific lessons about the D4Ops approaches, as learned from the first two examples, are then applied to the far term context. Weighted rankings of the impact of these approaches on various metrics of interest are provided."

Competitiveness, Economics, Monopolies, Acquisition Strategy

  • White Paper: "Independent Space Transportation Operator Concept, A Breakthrough Acquisition Strategy Using Independent Space Transportation Operators, Making Affordable and Sustainable Space Transportation Possible", C. McCleskey, Systems Engineering Office, Spaceport Engineering & Technology Directorate, NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center, Florida, May 18, 2004. Download .doc or download .pdf file.

"Air Mail Act of 1934 - Aerospace history can provide us some inspiration on this subject. The air transportation world in the early 1930s ran into the ethical problems that can often occur in completely vertical business arrangements with a narrow set of players. The issue was finally resolved through anti-trust legislation in the Airmail Act of 1934."

Operations, Space Shuttle Thermal Protection Systems (TPS)

The following file on Shuttle Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) maintenance contains data that is extremely valuable to operations analysis such as relates to maintainability for one of the many complex systems on a reusable space transportation systems element. It is one piece of a much larger set of issues, including safety and reliability, relating to TPS systems, current and future. The CAIB report, coupled with the data herein, demonstrates how systems such as RCC can appear robust, but still be both un-safe and difficult to maintain, having an ill understood set of failure modes that can contribute to a low overall reliability/safety/operability.

  • "The Cost of Maintaining Thermal Protection Systems", Frank E. Jones, NASA Kennedy Space Center. Download (.ppt) or download (5MB .pdf)

From the CAIB report, page 83:

"The wing leading edge Reinforced Carbon-Carbon composite material and associated support hardware are remarkably tough and have impact capabilities that far exceed the minimal impact resistance specified in their original design requirements. Nevertheless, these tests demonstrate that this inherent toughness can be exceeded by impacts representative of those that occurred during Columbia's ascent."

2003

Safety, Reliability, Space Shuttle Thermal Protection System (TPS), CAIB Report

2002

  • The Rand Study -"Report of the Space Shuttle Competitive Sourcing Task Force" was released December 2002. Updated cost DATA on the Shuttle program is detailed in the reports.

2001

  • "Dr. Kurt H. Debus: Launching a Vision", C. McCleskey, NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center and D. Christensen, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, International Astronautical Federation (IAF-01), Toulouse, France, October 2001. Download (3MB .pdf).
  • DATA > A Review of Space Shuttle Data, Shuttle Orbiter Line Replaceable Units (LRUs) Replaced per Flight During Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) Turnaround Operations

1999

1998

Reliability, Operability, Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME)

For future systems to improve on the Space Shuttle it is extremely valuable to analyze and understand the Shuttle operations experience qualitatively and quantitatively. One such report follows specific to the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs).

  • NASA/TP—1998–208530, "Reusable Rocket Engine Operability Modeling and Analysis", R.L. Christenson and D.R. Komar Marshall Space Flight Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama. Download (1MB .pdf)

1997 

1996 

Reliability, Maintainability, Ground Operations, Rocket Engines

  • 1996 Report on "Rocket Engine Life Analysis", 59 pages, Download (15MB .pdf). This report describes methods to extend a rocket engines life, and to reduce failures, thereby reducing operational costs and increasing flight safety. Additionally, the DATA supports a means to avoid having to remove engines from flight to flight for future reusable systems, as done currently on Shuttle orbiters.

1995

Operations, Space Shuttle Thermal Protection Systems (TPS)

For future systems to improve on the Space Shuttle it is extremely valuable to analyze and understand the Shuttle operations experience both qualitatively and quantitatively. The Shuttle Thermal Protection System (TPS) experience is one such example.

  • "Space Shuttle Orbiter Thermal Protection System Processing Assessment Final Report", May 1995, Prepared by: Michael P. Gordon, TPS Orbiter Engineering, Materials & Processes, Rockwell Florida Operations D/830. No longer available on the web. For copies of this report, available for governmental purposes only, contact Edgar Zapata, at NASA KSC.

Reliability, Safety, Loss of Vehicle, Space Shuttle

  • "1995 Probabalistic Risk Assessment of the Space Shuttle, A Study of the Potential of Losing the Vehicle During Nominal Operation". Download (6MB .pdf).

1993 - 1994

Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Operations Synergy Team

These files date back to 1994 and the activity of the Operations Synergy Team. This predates the selection of Lockheed-Martin to build the X-33. The files are still very relevant to future technology pursuits and space transportation systems affordability.

1992 

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Website Contact: Edgar Zapata, NASA Kennedy Space Center