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Space Transportation Systems Operations Analysis
While scheduling a series of launches results in a "plan" that is worked to, system reality involves uncertainty, variability, and randomness. The long-view question becomes not "when are we planning to launch", or "how many launches are we planning for any year". The long view asks "what are the chances we will launch by a given date" or "what are the chances we will achieve a given number of launches by a set time in the future".
Uncertainty -
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (1885 - 1962)
Variability -
Past experience is it's always different...
Randomness
This time up we have no idea what the specific result will be, but it should be within our past experience range...
White Paper: "On the Use of Simulation to Analyze the Capability of the Space Shuttle to Complete the Construction of the International Space Station" (.pdf file, 1MB) by Edgar Zapata, NASA Kennedy Space Center, Systems Engineering Office, 4/23/04. Note: This paper represents analysis and research work; it does not represent the official NASA view on return to flight or the related research topics discussed. Keywords: Space Shuttle, Modeling, Simulation, Supply-Chain, SCOR, GEM-FLO, Shuttle-Ops, Flight Rate, Presidential Vision, Space Exploration, Turnaround Time, Space Vehicle Processing Time, Spaceport, Space Systems Ground Infrastructure, Uncertainty, Probability, Columbia
Introduction to Simulation Analysis of Space Shuttle Manifest Options, April 9, 2004, PART 1 OVERVIEW (.ppt), Grant Cates, NASA Kennedy Space Center
The Process for Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Space Shuttle Manifest Options
Input Analysis: Introduction to Simulation Analysis of Space Shuttle Manifest Options, PART 2 INPUT ANALYSIS (.ppt), April 9, 2004, Grant Cates, NASA Kennedy Space Center
Shuttle Launch Pad Operations Added Work Days Post the Delta Launch Site Flight Readiness Review
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Website Contact: Edgar Zapata, NASA Kennedy Space Center