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The NASA Model
March 31, 2008
Why build strategic models?
- To light a path ahead. To provide perspective.
- To gain an improved understanding with which an organization can better understand information that was already available.
The United States National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) is at the start of great change in the continued exploration of Space. Whereas today’s NASA Space enterprise is defined by the Space Shuttle, the International Space Station, the Launch Services Program, and Research & Development, NASA has begun to significantly move resources toward the development of a new space transportation system, the Constellation architecture, with an outlook to Lunar exploration, and an outpost, and beyond to Mars. Such human endeavors are by their nature generational, spanning decades, inevitably seeing the ebb and flow of resources from one generation to the next. Once committed, planning must reach out to years that seem far away from current events and far removed from current decisions. A series of visualizations of all the decisions and data to see the Generational advance of NASA and Space Exploration is one way to bring the task down to size. This work develops the visualization of numerous “resource” scenarios, locates and explains the drivers of these scenarios and explores common drivers and outcomes among different scenarios. All options have a common goal – to assure this generational endeavor is robust to future events, is achievable, and allows for the continued, growing expansion of a human presence beyond Earth.
“Elsewhere, I have written that a careful analysis of what we can do at NASA on constant-dollar budgets leads me to believe that we can realistically be on Mars by the mid-2030's.” – NASA Administrator Michael Griffin, Space Transportation Association Luncheon Jan. 23, 2008
Above - From pre-ESAS, the beginnings of the constant-dollar expectation / assumption
Above - A simple plan...a scenario, one of many possibilities, parting from a constant purchase power assumption (i.e. the "constant dollar"), showing those resources that are available any year for 6 repeating, continuous, NASA areas: (1) future development of higher maturity items (currently the Constellation program), (2) space research and development for low technology maturity items (currently "Exploration Advanced Capabilities"), (3) space transportation (Currently Shuttle & Space Flight Support), (4) human presence in space, a station and/or an outpost (currently the International Space Station), (5) science and aeronautics and (6) NASA in-direct support functions (mostly Cross Agency Support / CAS).
Above - Prototype NASA Resource Dashboard and notional scenario exploration from the "EZ What-if NASA Model II".
Above - Why we quantify.
This work is in support of the NASA Constellation program. For further information about the NASA Model and this analysis work contact Edgar Zapata at NASA KSC at edgar.zapata-1@nasa.gov.
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Website Contact: Edgar Zapata, NASA Kennedy Space Center