Programmatic Considerations

As previously noted a comparative assessment of space transportation system concepts or design choices within a system must address not only measurable design criteria but also programmatic considerations. The value of this approach has been discussed in the introduction to this document. This section addresses the specific programmatic considerations or factors (as shown on the previous page as well as visualized on the X-axis of the figure on page 2). These programmatic considerations impact the non-recurring cost portion of the life cycle cost of a space transportation architecture. Further these non-recurring costs may be divided into those involved in the R&D phase and those in the program acquisition phase.

The programmatics outlined here cover the traditional categories of program management activities such as cost, schedule, technical, risk, and procurement.

DEFINITIONS

R&D - TECHNOLOGY:

The technology "R&D" category of programmatic considerations is the first major non-recurring cost step leading to "Program Acquisition". An aircraft production analogy would be the technology R&D in composite materials and structures, CRT flight instruments, and upgraded turbojet engines required to enable a new state-of-the-art transport such as the Boeing 777. Technology R&D must be identified and established as possible "upfront" before a manufacturing decision (program acquisition) is committed.

The following list of programmatic considerations include 11 related to the R&D phase of a program.

PROGRAM ACQUISITION:

"Program Acquisition" is the final non-recurring-cost, major program activity, leading to the fabrication and delivery of the desired "affordable" space transportation system. This "system" includes the delivered vehicles as well as required support infrastructure. An aircraft production analogy would be the data gathering and decision-making process leading to major capital (non-recurring) investment in factory facilities, tooling, and operations-support infrastructure necessary to support production and delivery of aircraft to the customer.

The following list of programmatic considerations include 7 related to this program acquisition phase of a program.

The following describes and clarifies features of any program in an order prioritized using previously described methodology.

"Level" refers to the level or phase in the acquisition cycle at which the desired programmatic information is available. Level 1 is concept definition, 2 is system and subsystem description and 3 is at the preliminary design review phase.

(1) PA - Number of major new technology development items (engines, airframes, TPS…) (reduce):

The system requiring the greatest quantity of new items to develop can be expected to have a much higher risk to the schedule and cost of eventual acquisition.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

(2) PA - Technology readiness at program acquisition milestone: TRL 6 + margin (increase)

Assessment for the program acquisition phase includes evaluating all the technologies that were researched, developed and demonstrated and then determining if a particular technology will be part of the acquisition or not. For example, a technology at TRL 8 at the time of preliminary program acquisition decisions is more desirable than one at TRL 6 all other factors being equal.

Level: 3 - This represents information that may not be available until later in decision making, such as at a PDR phase.

(3) R&D - Time required to establish infrastructure (schedule of the R&D phase) (reduce)

Infrastructure here refers to major test facilities for R&D requirements such as wind tunnels or test stands. Those concepts requiring a relatively short period of time for the accomplishment of the R&D phase are more attractive than those requiring many years to complete. The measure is in years.

Level: 1 through 3: Partial information and estimates may be available for this information early in concept development. More information becomes available as the project proceeds into a preliminary design phase.

(4) PA - Infrastructure cost: initial system implementation (capital investment) (reduce)

This cost represents a major non-recurring financial investment for system support facilities, equipment and other amortized physical plant properties.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

Figure F. The relation of flight systems to eventual infrastructure (NASA OEPSS 1992)¹⁷.

(5) PA - Total system DDT&E concept development and implementation cost (reduce)

This is a prime cost estimate factor (not including infrastructure) which will weigh heavily in go-no-go program acquisition decisions. DDT&E and implementation refers to Design, Development, Test and Engineering as well as the theoretical first unit (implementation) which encompasses first vehicles as well as operating sites.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

(6) R&D - Number of technology breakthroughs required to develop and demonstrate (reduce)

How many basic physics, materials or performance technical breakthroughs must be developed and demonstrated? Those technologies requiring a greater quantity of "proof of concepts" can be expected to have a higher schedule and program risk.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

(7) PA - Technology capability margin (performance as fraction of ultimate) (increase)

The resulting fraction can enable an adequate assessment of technical performance margin deemed essential for a robust, affordable system. An example is an engine that can perform the mission at 90% of the maximum rated chamber pressure rather than 106%. The expectation of being able to create, preserve and implement this margin is the program consideration.

Level: 2 through 3: Information in this criteria is traditionally available as the project matures to a PDR phase.

(8) R&D - Number of full scale ground or flight demonstrations required (reduce)

This refers to the development and demonstrations in full scale (system, sub-systems, components) required during the technology R&D phase. The cost of facilities, GSE, material, technical support and headcount relate strongly to the number of demonstrations required.

Level: 2 - This represents information often available early on before any PDR phase.

(9) R&D - Current TRL (increase)

As with the design features (reference design feature 16-Technology Readiness Level) the determination of where a technology is relative to TRL descriptions is a key determinant of placing further emphasis on one approach versus another. The programmatic applicability is generally concerned with technologies at the low end of the TRL spectrum as measured against each other for similar functions.

This criteria, while also used as a design feature, has a different implication from a programmatic perspective. The programmatic concern is the risk to the R&D schedule as well as cost containment.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

(10) R&D - Number of operational effectiveness attributes previously demonstrated (increase)

A determination of readiness from an operational perspective may not always equal a determination of readiness from a purely functional perspective. A functional perspective may involve only the mission or performance aspect, such as a thermal protection system capable of withstanding certain temperatures or of reliably protecting a vehicle from either ascent or descent heating environments. An operational perspective will go further and include the ability to perform at low or zero levels of turnaround support, with true reusability and robustness.

A technology which has demonstrated operational systems effectiveness would be more desirable than one having demonstrated fewer. Operational systems effectiveness may be measured by having demonstrated attributes such as affordability, reliability, dependability, simplicity, or maintainability. A complete list of desirable attributes is contained in "Overview of the SPST Approach" under "Benefits (Technical)".

Level: 1 through 2: This represents information often available early before a PDR phase.

(11) PA - Number of other options available (increase)

A particular technology may fulfill a function that may also be achieved with a competing technology. For example, high density fuel cells and batteries may both be available as a power source system at acquisition yet only one may be needed. Having multiple options is desirable for any functional need of a space transportation concept. Program acquisition is enhanced by having varied choices possible to proceed into as well as backups should later events require a redirection.

Level: 1 through 2: This represents information often available early before a PDR phase.

(12) R&D - Number of applications beyond space transportation (increase)

The ability to gain support, private, public or otherwise sponsored for a technology endeavor, increases as the number of possible secondary applications increases. Can the technology be applied to aircraft, trains, automobiles or other areas outside of space transportation systems?

Level: 1 through 2: This represents information often available early before a PDR phase.

(13) R&D - Time to reach TRL 6 from start of R&D (reduce)

Overall program schedule requirements will be affected by upfront R&D timelines. For any technology the ability to reach TRL 6 quickly is desirable.

Level: 1 through 3: Partial information and estimates may be available for this information early in concept development. More information becomes available as the project proceeds into a preliminary design phase.

(14) R&D - Number of related technology databases available (increase)

In assessing levels of risk for budgets, performance, operability and schedule those technologies reasonably well related to documented R&D from previous work should encounter a minimum, predictable level of program risk. "How good is the database?" and "has this been done before or is it all new?" are key questions.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

(15) R&D - Number of new facilities required costing over $2M (reduce)

This item serves as further quantifier of technology R&D that may likely contribute to an unacceptable level of overall program affordability. This includes test sites and manufacturing sites related to R&D.

Level: 3 - This represents information that may not be available until later in decision making, such as at a PDR phase.

(16) PA - Number of items requiring major ground test articles and demonstration (example: new engines) (reduce)

Major ground test articles are extremely consuming of time and resources. The technology meeting a majority of all other requirements and possessing the least test requirements can be expected to have a cost and schedule advantage.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

(17) R&D - Cost to reach TRL 6 (reduce)

This measure is in cost. Assuming a set of options or technologies will likely achieve an equal benefit, measured against the design features in this guide for example, then the option which costs less to reach a TRL at which a program acquisition point can be made is more desirable.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

(18) R&D - Total annual funding by item at peak dollar requirements (reduce)

The measure here is cost. The percent of a programs annual funds required by a particular technology R&D effort is preferably low all other factors being equal.

Level: 1 - This represents information traditionally available early in concept development.

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Edgar Zapata, NASA Kennedy Space Center

Shuttle Process Engineering Directorate, Fluid Systems Division