QFD (described further in "What is QFD?") is not all inclusive in it’s ability to aid the decision making processes associated with large, complex technical projects. Sophisticated tool sets for analysis and modeling of future options from a technical, programmatic, performance and market perspective are required. One such project currently in work is called OSAMS.
Operations Simulation and Analysis Modeling System (OSAMS)
A Decision Support System
In order to develop a future space transportation system that achieves cost goals in the order of $200 per pound to low earth orbit, a systematic method needs to be developed to assess the impacts of various concept alternatives on cost and mission effectiveness. Specifically, an unbiased, user-friendly "tool" is required to allow program managers and developers to quickly assess the most effective areas to invest scarce resources and evaluate the potential impacts of these investments to the "life-cycle" and per mission cost of the system.
The NASA Advisory Council, in a letter dated 31 August, 1995, states that "Much of the cost for current launch vehicles is in the operations, launch rate, and support. For a reusable vehicle, this has proven to be the major driver (e.g., Shuttle). We recommend that a reasonably detailed economic model be developed that includes all the acquisition and operations costs; that is total life cycle cost. Such a model would be used to evaluate contending RLV concepts. This should be maintained by an independent studies and analysis group to help guide future RLV decisions." Further the NAC adds, "From the outset, the RLV of the future should be designed as a operational vehicle."
These recent statements by the NAC are equally applicable to HRST (and other space programs) and strongly support the development of an independent, NASA in-house capability for operations/life cycle cost analysis. The development of a comprehensive operations simulator for use in the very early concept evaluation phase, as well as extensible to later phases, would be a major step in realizing this capability. This tool would provide program managers and developers a method of performing analysis on all elements of life-cycle costs. It would allow a unbiased and consistent means to evaluate competing alternative launch and operations concepts, evaluate the impact of proposed technologies, and provide insight into life cycle, development and operations costs.
OSAMS will provide managers and developers with the needed analytical capability described above. OSAMS will be a powerful, flexible decision support system that will enable managers and developers to gain insight to HRST (or other system) concepts and variations. OSAMS will provide this support through a computer based environment for the analysis of systems concepts and will aid the manager/engineer in both life and flight cycle evaluations of concepts through the use of interactive dialogues with the system engineer. These dialogues will be conducted through a display screen using windows and pull down menus using a variety of input devices that include keyboard, mouse, and function keys. Using these completed dialogues in combination with pre-defined OSAMS components, the system engineer will be able to describe HRST concepts through a series of documentation activities that describe mission models, flight vehicle concepts, vehicle ground processing concepts, payload processing concepts, and maintenance and refurbishment concepts. Using OSAMS tools the system engineer will transform these HRST elements into a dynamic monte carlo simulation of these combined elements and interactions.
OSAMS will support procedures for analyzing these statistically valid simulations in terms of life-cycle cost, and system performance. Life-cycle cost is composed of research and development costs, acquisition costs, operations costs, maintenance and refurbishment costs, disposal costs, and the associated cost of system failure. System performance measures includes both system and schedule reliability, facility utilization, payload delivery, and market competitiveness.
OSAMS will aid HRST developers in HRST program implementation planning. OSAMS
analytical tools will include methods for calculating return on investment, and technical and program risk. OSAMS will also aids HRST developers by providing automated methods of performing sensitivity analysis on key concept and mission model parameters. OSAMS will provide a state-of-art environment where its modeling and simulation tools can be used individually or as a set of highly integrated tools for evaluating system concepts, aiding in the selection of alternative investments in technology to reduce operations and life cycle costs, and ultimately, in improving the operability of the resulting HRST system.
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Edgar Zapata, NASA Kennedy Space Center
Shuttle Process Engineering Directorate, Fluid Systems Division